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NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at how the latest GDP data has shifted the expectations of where the economy is headed. Now, the economy will need some type of event (see: bubble popping) for rate cuts to become an option anytime soon, Miskin said. Energy price shocks could bring the world economy to a "vulnerable moment," chief economist Indermit Gill warned.
Persons: , TikTok, they're, you'd, Jia Feng, It'll, Insider's Madison Hoff, It's, Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, BI's Filip De Mott, Jamie Dimon, Matt Miskin, Miskin, Mark Zuckerberg, C, Cox, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Goldman Sachs, Guess what's, Indermit Gill, Alphabet's, Redmond, Tyler Le, Doug McMillon, execs, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Reserve, stagflation, JPMorgan, Wall Street, John Hancock Investment Management, Galatioto Sports Partners, Bank, Google, Big Tech, Microsoft, Health, Linkedin, YouTube, ExxonMobil Locations: Chevron, New York, London
So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, , Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC
So the Fed can keep interest rates higher for longer to cool price rises — although the central bank also has room to cut should the labor market "unexpectedly weaken," Powell added. Related storyHigher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for anything from mortgages to credit cards — it encourages people to save rather than spend, which in theory, helps bring down prices. AdvertisementConversely, lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending — thus driving the economy when growth slows, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic when the Fed cut rates massively and pumped money into the system. But Reid thinks the excess money could be drained from the economy later this year, when money supply in the economy normalizes. AdvertisementDemand, supply chain snarls, and fiscal stimulus also contribute to inflationTo be sure, money supply isn't the only thing that contributes to inflation.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Reid, it's, Reid, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, Wilson Center, Business, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Washington, New York, Dudley
Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, , , Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty ImagesA hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading. Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes. Sticky inflation problem
Persons: Jerome Powell, Eric Baradat, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Dow Jones, Stephen Stanley, Ian Lyngen, we're Organizations: AFP, Getty, O'Brien & Associates, Dow, Santander U.S, Wall, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Fed Locations: Washington ,
Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the bank's William McChesney Martin building on March 20, 2024 in Washington, DC. His comments come as investors await the release of further U.S. economic data and closely monitor clues from Fed officials about the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2024. Asked on Thursday about the likelihood of one or no Fed interest rate cuts this year, Blitz said that it's "getting pretty good. Blitz said markets will likely continue to march higher, even if the Fed decides not to impose any interest rate cuts this year — a prospect that U.S. asset manager Vanguard named as their base-case scenario. Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, March 22, 2024.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Chip Somodevilla, Steven Blitz, Blitz, They're, CNBC's, it's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Raphael Bostic, Jerome, Powell Organizations: Bank, Getty, Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Traders, Fed, Vanguard, Economic, of New, Atlanta Federal Reserve, US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Washington ,, U.S, of New York, Atlanta, Washington , DC
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we've made a March Madness bracket to decide the biggest topics in business, tech, and innovation, and we need you to vote . [2] Interest rates vs. [7] US-China relations: The biggest question in the market is when the Federal Reserve will lower rates. China doesn't have as direct an impact on US businesses as interest rates, but it's not far behind. Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesThe Fed holds the line on interest rates.
Persons: , Jensen, we've, ya, Kevin Frayer, Chelsea Jia Feng, it's, Elon Musk, Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, he's, Goldman Sachs, Russell Horwitz, hasn't, Greg Doherty, Mustafa Suleyman, Karén Simonyan, Sam Altman, Alex Nabaum, It's, Elon Musk's Neuralink, Noland Arbaugh, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Federal Reserve, EV, Boomers, Fed, UBS, BI, Wall, Variety, New York Stock Exchange, Microsoft, Amazon, FedEx, Nike Locations: China, VCs, Valley, New York, London
Read previewTOKYO (AP) — Japan's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate Tuesday for the first time in 17 years, ending a longstanding policy of negative rates meant to boost the economy. The short-term rate was raised to a range of 0 to 0.1% from minus 0.1% at a policy meeting that confirmed expectations of a shift away from ultra-lax monetary policy. The negative interest rate policy, combined with other measures to inject money into the economy and keep borrowing costs low, "have fulfilled their roles," the bank said in a statement. The Japanese central bank's policy is quite different from those of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to continue to move slowly on further raising interest rates.
Persons: , Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of, Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan, U.S, China
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the US Federal Reserve should delay cutting interest rates until the second half of the year. He said the Fed should wait for more data before cutting rates. Despite the market's optimism for a soft landing, Dimon says there's a 65% chance of a recession in the next two years. AdvertisementThe US Federal Reserve should wait until the second half of the year before cutting interest rates, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said on Tuesday. So, the market is pricing in a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing.
Persons: Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, there's, , JP Morgan Chase, , Dimon, Organizations: US, Reserve, Service, Federal, Australian Financial, Business
The one big thing keeping interest rates high
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Rekenthaler called shelter costs the "most relevant data point" in the most recent consumer price index inflation report. Meanwhile, James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, a financial markets research firm, told Business Insider, "Rising shelter costs will cause the Fed to hold off on cutting rates." Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesRent and shelter costs tend to lag behind the rest of the economy because rents are typically fixed for long periods. However, Gordon also said shelter costs can't be ignored because of how much it impacts overall inflation.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, John Rekenthaler, Rekenthaler, Morningstar, James Bianco, Anna Moneymaker, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Gordon Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank, Business, Morningstar, Fed, Bianco Research, Federal Reserve
Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan testifies before a House Judiciary Committee hearing on Oversight of the Federal Trade Commission, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., July 13, 2023. Kevin Wurm | ReutersPresident Joe Biden on Tuesday will launch a new task force to take on "unfair and illegal" corporate pricing, which Biden sees as a major reason why consumers are not yet feeling the impact of cooling inflation rates and a strong economy. The task force will be jointly led by the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice, two agencies at the forefront of the Biden administration's aggressive regulatory agenda over the past three years. The announcements and the meeting are part of Biden's ongoing crusade against corporate pricing practices that he claims are unfair. Lael Brainard, vice chair of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during an interview in Washington, DC, on Monday, Nov. 14, 2022.
Persons: Lina Khan, Kevin Wurm, Joe Biden, Biden, Antitrust Jonathan Kanter, Khan, Kanter, Jonathan Kanter, Kevin Dietsch, Lael Brainard, inhalers, Brainard, Andrew Harrer Organizations: Federal Trade, Federal Trade Commission, Capitol, Washington , D.C, Department of Justice, Biden, Force, Antitrust, Justice Department, White, Competition Council, Economic, Consumer Financial, Agriculture Department, US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Washington ,, Washington , DC, U.S
“And, of course, South Carolina is in the heart of the Southeast.”Job seekers check-in to a job fair at a Schneider Electric manufacturing facility in Hopkins, South Carolina, in January 2023. “You can reach about twice as many people within an 8-hour drive from South Carolina as you can from Florida,” he said. “The housing market and the manufacturing industry, particularly in South Carolina, saw a major increase in demand,” Von Nessen said. South Carolina home sale activity fell by double-digits in 2022 but has since started to stabilize, he said. “We’re just treating so many more patients that we don’t have capacity,” said Thornton Kirby, CEO of the South Carolina Hospital Association.
Persons: ” Joseph Von Nessen, Darla Moore, ” Von Nessen, , it’s, It’s, Sean Rayford, Barrie Kirk, , Von Nessen, Micah Green, “ We’re, Thornton Kirby, Malcolm Isley, “ We’ve, ” Isley, Arnold Kamler, Inc . Kent, Kent, Kamler, Nikki Haley, , Daniel Slim, Scott Huffmon, Donald Trump, Haley, they’d Organizations: CNN, Palmetto State, of Labor Statistics, University of South, of Business, North, SC Council, Competitiveness, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Midlands Technical College, Technical College Midlands Technical College, Schneider, Bloomberg, Getty, Census, US Federal Reserve, US News, South Carolina Hospital Association, , Prisma, Health Prisma Health, Greenville Technical College, Health Center for Health, Life Sciences, Kent International, Walmart, Kent, Inc ., Winthrop University, , Charleston City Market, Winthrop’s Center, Public, Research, Palmetto, Republican, Trump, CBS Locations: South Carolina, South, , Carolina, Myrtle Beach , South Carolina, North America, University of South Carolina, West Columbia, United States, Hopkins , South Carolina, Florida, droves, Myrtle Beach, , Manning, New York City, Georgia, Charleston, AFP
US consumers are struggling with soaring credit card debt and rising interest rates. Credit card debt is now at record levels, and interest rates on those cards have soared. AdvertisementOf that total debt, credit card balances are growing the fastest. While this could create a parallel between today's credit card crisis and the mortgage crisis of 15 years ago, there are a few important differences today. AdvertisementStill, the rise in credit card debt and delinquencies could point to cracks in the strength of Americans' spending power.
Persons: Thomas Nitzsche, Gen Z, millennials, Nitzsche, Ginger Chambless, Chambless Organizations: Business, Money Management, MMI, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, Adobe Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wells Fargo
Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before he is willing to support interest rate cuts. on cutting rates, the central bank official said higher-than-expected inflation readings for January raised questions on where prices are heading and how the Fed should respond. He added that there are few signs inflation will fall below 2% anytime soon based on strong 3.3% annualized growth in gross domestic product and employment, with few signs of a potential recession in sight. "That makes the decision to be patient on beginning to ease policy simpler than it might be," Waller said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal, Committee Locations: Washington ,, Minneapolis
New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.
Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, , didn’t, Jerome Powell, , it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine
China, however, is having a different problem: Prices are falling at their fastest rate in 15 years. No, that wasn’t a typo, falling prices are a problem when they’re widespread across an economy, like in China, which is experiencing what’s known as deflation. At first glance, falling prices may sound good. Like the US Federal Reserve, most central banks target a 2% annual rate of inflation, not zero inflation whatsoever. “In a deflationary environment monetary policy may not be able to sufficiently stimulate the economy by using its interest rate instrument.
Persons: Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank Locations: New York, China
CNBC Daily Open: Inflation's stubborn staying power
  + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders work the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) ahead of the US Federal Reserve's decision on lending rates, in New York on January 31, 2024. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nvidia closed at $721.28 per share, with a market value of $1.78 trillion to Amazon's $1.75 trillion market cap. Bitcoin retreatsCryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday tracking the broader market sell-off. [PRO] Japan's bull caseJapan is fast emerging on investors' radar, and this has been reflected in the stock market's recent bull run.
Persons: Russell, Bob Bakish, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Jurrien, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New York Stock, Federal, CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Amazon Nvidia, Amazon, Paramount, Paramount Global, Metrics, Fidelity Investments Locations: New York, Japan
US banks have given out $1 trillion of loans to non-regulated "shadow banks." Regulators said that these alternative lenders increase banks' exposure to higher risk debt. Several major banks including Citigroup and Wells Fargo have strengthened their ties with alternative asset lenders. AdvertisementThe amount of loans made by US banks to less regulated shadow lenders surpassed $1 trillion in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Organizations: Regulators, Citigroup, Service, US Federal Reserve, Business Locations: Wells
Stock futures edged lower Thursday evening after the S&P 500 crossed the historic 5,000 milestone for the first time during intraday trading. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both about 0.1% lower. The large-cap benchmark reached a high of 5,000.40 during Thursday's regular trading before closing less than 3 points below the key 5,000 threshold. The S&P 500 first crossed 4,000 on April 1, 2021, so it took almost three years to add the last 1,000 points. A solid earnings season, easing inflation data and a resilient economy have powered the market rally into 2024, with the S&P 500 up 4.8% on the year.
Persons: Ryan Detrick, we've Organizations: New York Stock, Federal, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Carson Group Locations: New York
In today's big story, we're looking at why investors are eyeing an even better outcome for the market than a soft landing . The big storyMarket's sweet spotPiotr PowietrzynskiForget about a soft landing, some market watchers want something just right. For months, investors hoped the Fed's tightening policy would culminate in a soft landing: lowering inflation while avoiding a full-blown recession. But why settle for a soft landing when you can get it all? Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty ImagesA Goldilocks economy still hinges on the Fed cutting rates, which has proved fleeting for investors.
Persons: , hasn't, Piotr Powietrzynski Forget, Matthew Fox, Solita, Marcelli, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we'll, Powell, Banks, Kenneth Rogoff, Jensen Huang, Rick Wilking, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Fintechs, VCs, Sam Altman, Altman, didn't, Scott Winters, Alyssa Powell, Travis Kelce, Experian, It's, EVs, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Getty, Bank of America, Harvard, Nvidia, CES, Kansas City Chiefs, US Treasury, New York Times, UBS, FAA, Boeing, Max Locations: Americas, Washington ,, Xinhua, Jensen, Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, China, New York, London
Top economists are fretting about geopolitical tensions, according to a World Economic Forum survey. AdvertisementThe year 2024 will likely be a stormy one for the global economy as growth slows and geopolitical tensions ramp up around the world, according to a World Economic Forum survey. More than half the respondents said the world economy will get weaker this year, and 70% predicted looser financial conditions – implying that they believe central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will start lowering interest rates at some point in 2024. Advertisement"Amid accelerating divergence, the resilience of the global economy will continue to be tested in the year ahead," WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi said. "Though global inflation is easing, growth is stalling, financial conditions remain tight, global tensions are deepening and inequalities are rising."
Persons: they're, Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, , Saadia Zahidi, JPMorgan Chase, aren't Organizations: Service, US Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Sunday Times, Bridgewater Associates Locations: Swiss, Davos, Ukraine, China, Chicago
“The Argentine economy is in such bad shape that it has to be shaken up. President Milei and his team are doing exactly that,” she said during an interview in Davos. He has also devalued Argentina’s currency. However, some of Milei’s measures, such as the devaluation, are also likely to stabilize Argentina’s economy in the medium term, Sperrfechter said. Among his most radical plans, Milei has pledged to ditch the peso as Argentina’s official currency and replace it with the US dollar.
Persons: London CNN —, ” “, ” Javier Milei, , Milei, Juan Peron, Kristalina Georgieva, CNN’s Richard Quest Wednedsay, Milei’s, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Sperrfechter, It’s Organizations: London CNN, Economic, Council, Foreign Relations, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Argentine, Capital Economics, CNN, , US Federal Reserve Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Argentina, Argentine, US, “ Argentina
UK inflation posts first rise in almost a year
  + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
London CNN —UK inflation accelerated in December for the first time since February last year, official data showed Wednesday. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, remained stuck at 5.1%, while services inflation increased from 6.3% to 6.4%. The UK data mirrors the trend in the United States and Europe of slight upticks in headline inflation. Energy prices could also rise if the conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Still, several leading UK economists shrugged off the latest increase in inflation, noting that inflation could return to the Bank of England’s 2% target by the spring, helped by recent falls in energy prices.
Persons: Grant Fitzner, shrugged, , Roger Barker, Yael Selfin Organizations: London CNN —, National Statistics, Reuters, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England’s, Institute of, KPMG, Bank of England Locations: United States, Europe, Red
Gold prices have never been this high
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
London CNN —Gold prices hit an all-time high Monday, buoyed by growing expectations of interest rate cuts among investors, a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions. “This has created a more favorable environment for gold as a non-yielding asset.”John Reade, a market strategist at the World Gold Council, an association of gold producers, told CNN that, with investors predicting several rate cuts over the next year, gold prices could “quite possibly” shoot above Monday’s record high. Since gold is priced in US dollars, the fall in the greenback’s value has made it less expensive for investors outside the United States to buy the metal, which should have boosted demand and, in turn, lifted gold prices. Gold prices have risen 10% so far this year. According to the World Gold Council, central banks in emerging markets bought 473 metric tons (521 tons) of gold a year on average between 2010 and 2021.
Persons: ebbs, Daria Efanova, ” John Reade, Jamie Dimon, ” Reade, , Reade, Organizations: London CNN —, US Federal Reserve, Treasury, Sucden, World Gold Council, CNN, Interactive Investor Locations: United States, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, China, South China, Taiwan, Russian
Bill Ackman said in a Bloomberg podcast he expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates soon. He said the US economy risks a sharp downturn if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon. AdvertisementBill Ackman expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the first quarter of next year. The Fed needs to cut interest rates soon to avoid a sharp downturn in the US economy, the billionaire investor said on Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations." The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an effort to cool soaring inflation.
Persons: Bill Ackman, , David Rubenstein, That's, Ackman, Rubenstein, There's Organizations: Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve, Service, Carlyle Group, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Israel, Swiss
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